How Scup Came Back: NOAA Explains One of the Northeast’s Remarkable Fishery Recoveries

By Paul Taylor, Editor, ScupFish.com · Published September 21, 2026

Scup anglers today are fishing for a species that looks very different from the one scientists were studying three decades ago.

In the mid-1990s, scup spawning stock biomass was at or near historic lows, at roughly 4,000 to 5,000 metric tons. The population also had relatively few older fish. Today, scup are not overfished, overfishing is not occurring, and the 2025 stock assessment estimated 2024 spawning stock biomass at 235,613 metric tons — about 3.2 times the current biomass target.

That is an extraordinary turnaround.

But the story is more complicated than simply saying there are more scup now.

Recent year classes have been much weaker than the enormous 2015 year class that helped push the stock to its current level. Some survey measures have declined from recent highs. Scientists are watching changes in growth and maturity. And because the stock is currently so far above its target, NOAA says some decline in biomass would actually be consistent with management goals rather than evidence that the fishery is failing.

To better understand both the recovery and what comes next, ScupFish asked NOAA Fisheries about the history of the stock, current surveys, recreational fishing, recruitment, and the trends scientists will be watching over the next several years.

The result is a much clearer picture of how scup went from a severely depleted stock to one of the most abundant fisheries in the Northeast — and why scientists are not taking that recovery for granted.

Scup Were in Serious Trouble

The scup fishery of the 1990s bears little resemblance to the fishery many Northeast anglers know today.

Spawning stock biomass was extremely low and fishing mortality was high. NOAA says the recovery that followed was largely the result of management measures that reduced fishing pressure combined with several years of strong reproduction and survival.

The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission and Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council established a joint scup management program in 1995.

For recreational anglers, measures eventually included harvest limits and minimum sizes. Commercial measures included quotas, minimum sizes, permitting and reporting requirements. Gear Restricted Areas were also established to reduce scup bycatch in small-mesh fisheries such as those targeting longfin squid and silver hake.

A formal seven-year rebuilding plan was established in 2007 and implemented beginning in 2008.

Scup did not need seven years.

The stock reached its rebuilding target in 2009.

Annual catch limits and accountability measures followed in 2011, designed to keep fishing within scientifically determined limits.

The contrast with the mid-1990s is striking.

NOAA described the overall change this way: scup went from a severely depleted population with few older fish to one with much greater spawning biomass and a broader age structure.

Today There Are Scup Nearly 20 Years Old

One of the most interesting changes may not be immediately obvious from looking at total biomass.

The population is older.

NOAA told ScupFish that roughly a decade ago, finding scup age 11 or older in scientific samples was rare.

Now scientists are finding fish that are 17 to 19 years old.

A population containing fish across many different age groups is generally considered healthier and more resilient than one dominated by only a few young age classes. NOAA specifically pointed to that broader age structure as an indicator of a healthy population.

For anglers, this helps explain why the modern scup fishery isn't simply about having more fish in the water.

There are also more older fish than scientists were seeing during the depleted period.

That does not mean every trip will produce unusually large scup. Local conditions, season, depth and fishing location still matter enormously. But the underlying population now includes age classes that were once uncommon.

One Enormous Year Class Helped Create Today's Fishery

Scup abundance does not increase smoothly from one year to the next.

Some spawning years produce many more surviving young fish than others. Scientists call the number of young fish entering the population recruitment, and strong year classes can influence the fishery for years afterward.

Few examples illustrate that better than 2015.

NOAA estimates the 2015 year class at approximately 696 million fish.

Those fish survived and grew, eventually contributing heavily to spawning stock biomass. NOAA says the exceptionally large 2015 year class helped drive biomass to a time-series high and that scientists continue to encounter fish from that cohort in age samples.

There is also a useful lesson here for recreational anglers.

The fish you catch this summer are not simply a product of what happened last year.

NOAA says scup enter recreational fisheries at around age four, depending on growth and local regulations. Today's fishery therefore reflects spawning and survival that occurred years earlier.

That delay is one reason scientists pay such close attention to recruitment.

Weak recruitment today may not be obvious to an angler fishing for legal-sized scup this season. Its effects can emerge later as those smaller year classes grow into the fishery.

Recent Recruitment Has Been Much Weaker

This is where the current scup story becomes particularly interesting.

The 2025 assessment estimated approximately 40 million recruits in 2023 and 16 million in 2024.

Compare that with approximately 696 million from the exceptional 2015 year class.

The difference is enormous.

But those numbers require some caution.

NOAA emphasized that estimates for recent year classes have considerable uncertainty because those fish have appeared in survey and catch data only once or twice. The 2027 assessment should give scientists a better basis for estimating the actual strength of the 2023 and 2024 cohorts.

A few weak year classes are not necessarily alarming, either.

Recruitment naturally varies. Scientists are trying to determine whether the recent weakness is ordinary short-term fluctuation or the beginning of a longer pattern.

If weak recruitment continues for several consecutive years, NOAA says scientists would eventually expect the effects to become visible in spawning stock biomass, the number of older fish and fishery survey indices.

For now, it is something to watch rather than evidence that the scup recovery has reversed.

Why Doesn't a Huge Scup Population Produce Huge Year Classes Every Year?

It seems intuitive that an enormous spawning population should produce enormous numbers of young fish.

Fish biology isn't that simple.

NOAA told ScupFish that future scup recruitment remains difficult to predict. There should be a fundamental relationship between the size of the spawning stock and recruitment, but environmental and ecosystem conditions can obscure that relationship.

Water temperature, food availability, predators, currents and conditions affecting eggs and larvae can all potentially influence whether a spawning year ultimately produces a strong cohort, although NOAA's response does not identify a single factor responsible for the recent weak scup year classes.

That distinction is important.

Scientists can observe that recent recruitment estimates are weak. They cannot yet point to a simple explanation for why.

Future assessment methods may help.

NOAA expects the 2027 scup assessment to use the Age Structured Assessment Program model and says a future move to a model such as the Woods Hole Assessment Model could make it easier to examine relationships between environmental trends and recruitment.

NOAA Is Using Much More Than One Survey

A stock assessment this important does not depend on one research cruise or one set of catch reports.

The 2025 assessment incorporated 12 state and federal surveys that help scientists track scup abundance, recruitment and population structure.

Among them are Northeast Fisheries Science Center winter and fall bottom-trawl surveys and Northeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program spring and fall surveys. Scientists use fishery-independent surveys to gather information on recruitment, juvenile and adult abundance, habitat characteristics and environmental conditions.

The recent picture is somewhat mixed.

Scup remain abundant, but several survey indices have declined from their recent highs. Recruitment has also weakened.

NOAA does not currently report a major shift in the geographic range of scup, although previous research found some movement in the seasonal center of biomass.

The familiar migration pattern remains: scup generally move north and inshore during spring before heading offshore and south in fall.

Recreational Anglers Are a Major Part of the Scup Fishery

Scup are not simply a commercial species that recreational anglers happen to catch.

Recreational fishing represents a substantial portion of total scup removals and has to be incorporated into NOAA's stock assessment.

Unlike commercial fisheries, private recreational anglers generally are not required to report every fish they catch. NOAA therefore relies on the Marine Recreational Information Program, or MRIP, to estimate recreational catch and fishing effort.

The Access Point Angler Intercept Survey gathers information from anglers returning to places such as beaches, piers, marinas and boat ramps to estimate average catch per trip. A mail survey is used to estimate overall fishing effort.

For 2024, NOAA estimated:

• 4,989 metric tons of recreational scup landings
• 741 metric tons of recreational dead discards
• 6,567 metric tons of commercial landings
• 4,700 metric tons of commercial dead discards

The geography of recreational scup fishing is even more revealing.

NOAA says 95% of recreational scup harvest occurred in state waters from 2022 through 2024.

Of that harvest:

• 54% came from New York
• 19% from Rhode Island
• 13% from Massachusetts
• 13% from Connecticut

Those numbers show just how concentrated the recreational scup fishery remains in New York and southern New England.

Why Falling Scup Biomass Wouldn't Necessarily Be Bad News

This may be the most counterintuitive part of the current scup story.

If scup biomass declines over the next several years, anglers could understandably assume something has gone wrong.

That isn't necessarily the case.

The 2025 assessment found that scup spawning stock biomass was roughly 3.2 times its target. The management objective isn't to keep the stock permanently at several times that target.

NOAA says that because biomass is currently above target, short-term projected declines are expected and consistent with management goals. Catch limits are intended to support sustainable commercial and recreational harvest while keeping stock biomass near its target over the long term.

That distinction matters.

A stock declining from an unusually high level toward its management target is very different from an overfished stock continuing to collapse.

It is also why individual numbers need context.

A future headline saying "scup biomass declines" could be technically accurate while giving anglers a misleading impression of the health of the fishery.

What Scientists Are Watching Now

NOAA identified five areas scientists will be following closely.

Recruitment. Scientists want to know whether the weak 2023 and 2024 year classes are temporary, whether weak recruitment continues, or whether later assessments revise those initial estimates upward.

Spawning stock biomass. NOAA will continue tracking biomass relative to the stock's reference point.

Age structure. Scientists want to see whether scup maintain the broad range of ages that developed during the rebuilding period.

Growth and maturity. NOAA has identified declines in scup growth and maturity schedules that could indicate changes in the productivity of the stock.

Assessment uncertainty. The latest assessment showed what scientists call a retrospective pattern, meaning estimates of recent biomass and fishing mortality changed when additional years of information were added.

Those are important qualifications to an otherwise remarkable success story.

The stock is healthy. That doesn't mean scientists stop watching it.

A Fishery That Looks Nothing Like It Did 30 Years Ago

It is easy for today's scup anglers to take abundance for granted.

In much of New York and southern New England, scup can provide the kind of fast action that makes them an ideal target for new anglers and experienced fishermen alike. On the right day, the challenge isn't finding scup. It's finding the larger ones.

That was not always the fishery.

The population NOAA was studying in the 1990s had spawning biomass near historic lows and relatively few older fish. Management reduced fishing pressure. Strong year classes helped rebuild the population. Scup reached their rebuilding target ahead of schedule.

Today, scientists are sampling fish approaching two decades old, and spawning stock biomass is more than three times the current target.

Yet perhaps the most useful lesson from the recovery is that a healthy fishery still requires attention.

Recent recruitment has been weak. Scientists don't yet know whether that will persist. Growth and maturity are being watched. New information may change recent biomass and fishing-mortality estimates.

NOAA summarized the current situation well: scup are healthier than they were 20 or 30 years ago, but sustained recovery depends on science, effective management, continued monitoring and collaboration with fishermen.

For recreational anglers, that leaves us in an enviable position.

We are fishing during one of the most abundant periods in the modern history of the scup stock.

The interesting question now isn't whether scup recovered.

It's what happens next.

Source note: This article is based on written responses provided to ScupFish by NOAA Fisheries on behalf of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center and Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office. NOAA's responses incorporated information from the 2025 Scup Management Track Assessment and other federal and state survey and fishery data. NOAA also invited recreational and commercial fishermen to contribute their expertise to the scup stock-assessment process.